TMI's Investment Quarterly for October 2018 is now available to download.

In this second part, Head of Collectives Research and Senior Portfolio Manager, Jordan Sriharan, looks at how active managers are re-shaping their fixed income and equity portfolios in order to navigate choppier waters.

TMI's Investment Commentary for September 2018 is now available to download.

During 2017 investors enjoyed several positive surprises. Economic growth was stronger than consensus forecast at the start of the year, inflation was notably lower than expected in most major economies (with notable exceptions like the UK) and corporate profitability recovered from the weakness seen the previous year. All these meant that investors’ expectation at the start of 2018 was that growth would accelerate further over the course of this year.

Jordan Sriharan, Head of Collectives Research and Senior Portfolio Manager, re-evaluates portfolios for H2 2018.

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View From The Front

After a couple of weeks of suffering, investors will be hoping this week can instil some confidence back into markets. One aspect that could restore some confidence is in US corporate earnings released this week as we enter the latest quarterly earnings season. According to Thomson Reuters, consensus is for third-quarter earnings to grow 21.5% compared to last year’s third-quarter.

The week after the US employment report tends to be a quiet affair and true to form, this week is a little light on data. The highlights however include CPI inflation numbers from the US, trade data out of China and the start of the third quarter corporate earnings results in the US.

It’s a busy week as we enter the final quarter of the year, with the release of the global manufacturing and service sector sentiment surveys, the US employment report and the Conservative Party Conference set to occupy domestic investors’ attentions.

It feels like Autumn is starting to hit its stride this week, whether financial markets will cool down with the weather remains to be seen. Global politics is certainly heating up. From this week we are introducing a short section focused on our current thoughts around Brexit, which we hope will keep readers informed on recent machinations. If we’re lucky then we’ll be able to stop writing about Brexit on March 29th 2019…

With the UK in full focus last week (more on that below), this week we have inflation and retail sales to look forward to on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Headline inflation is expected to tick up further to 2.7%, partly due to the rising oil price we have experienced over the past year (Brent Crude oil has risen from $55 per barrel up to around $78 in the past twelve months). Retail sales for August are expected to fall slightly for the month, which is unsurprising considering the strength of July due to the hot weather and the World Cup boosting consumer spending.

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