View from the Front

This week marks the start of the second half of the year, if you thought the first half was volatile then we suggest you hold on tight for the next six months.

For what is a relatively quiet week for economic data, the highlight is probably the latest inflation numbers we receive for the US on Friday in the form of the May PCE report.

For football fans, the highlight of the week will be England’s opening world cup game against Tunisia. Whilst there may be theatrics on the pitch, the drama at Westminster is likely to continue.  The EU Withdrawal Bill is set to return to the House of Lords before making its way back to the House of Commons for what looks like a fresh battle this week.

This could be a week that defines 2018 with a series of high-level meetings, both economic and political in nature which will set the mood for investors and electorate alike. From Singapore to Whitehall, from Washington to Riga, before ending the week in Moscow, expect newspaper editors to be busy.

This week is a much quieter one in terms of economic data. However, as we ended last week with heightened geopolitical tensions surrounding tariff wars and the Italian political situation, economic data would have probably taken a backseat this week regardless.

It may be a holiday shortened week, but it’s still a busy one in financial markets, with a number of key data releases that will help determine the pace that central banks’ tighten monetary policy.

In terms of economic data releases, it’s a relatively quiet week. With nothing of note being released today, we will be waiting until Tuesday morning when we get the UK’s latest employment report. With UK consumers continuing to battle higher levels of inflation and the negative impact this has had on their spending power, our attention will be focused on wage growth in the report. We also see the unemployment rate, which is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

In terms of economic data releases, it’s a relatively quiet week. With nothing of note being released today, we will be waiting until Tuesday morning when we get the UK’s latest employment report. With UK consumers continuing to battle higher levels of inflation and the negative impact this has had on their spending power, our attention will be focused on wage growth in the report. We also see the unemployment rate, which is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

The week after the release of the US employment report (see below) is typically a little light for economic data releases and given it’s a holiday shortened week for those of us in the UK, could we possibly expect an easy ride? Clearly not. Politics, central bank meetings and corporate earnings will play an important role in setting investor expectations this week as markets face their first full week of May.

It is another action-packed week in financial markets. Starting in the US, on Monday we receive the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, Core PCE. This is expected to rise to an annualised rate of 2%, a level not seen since April 2012, and a reading which will add to a growing list of indicators which show inflationary pressures are building within the US economy.