Front and centre of our thoughts this week include

Considering the theme for economic data has been one of recurring disappointment, plenty of our attention will be on the first look at February PMIs for Europe and the US, providing the latest insight into the health of their manufacturing and service sectors. The Eurozone is of particular concern with their Composite PMI falling nearer to contractionary territory (i.e. below 50).

Closer to home, the highlight for the UK in terms of economic data will be December’s employment report released tomorrow morning. With no change expected in the unemployment rate (holding at 4.0%) it will be the wage growth figures that are closely watched. Forecasts are for it to tick up further to 3.5%. We will be hoping this is the case, as the strength in wage growth coinciding with falling inflation in the UK has seen consumer confidence pick up, thus feeding through into strong retail sales – the latest update on this can be found below in the week-in-review.  Clearly the Bank of England will be following both these series very closely as it considers its next moves on monetary policy. 

Following weak retail sales data for the US (more on this below), data this week for the world’s largest economy will be highly scrutinised. This week sees the latest look at housing data, as well as durable goods orders to look for clues on business investment and further clarity on fourth-quarter GDP expectations.

Outside of economic data, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from January’s monetary policy meeting are released on Wednesday. It was at this meeting where the Federal Reserve (Fed) adjusted their guidance from continuing gradual raising interest rates to one of patience following increased uncertainty around the economic outlook.

Finally, with no concrete signs of resolution after US-China trade talks last week, negotiations will continue into this week. We remain hopeful a deal will be done ahead of the 1^st March deadline, preventing the US from raising China tariffs to 25% and further escalating tensions.

Going on in the engine of Brexit

Prime Minister Theresa May suffered yet another defeat in Parliament on her plan B for Brexit on Thursday, losing by 303-258 in yet another reminder of how difficult it will be to get a majority backing for a Brexit deal. Mrs May has now promised to bring (another) revised deal back to the House of Commons by the end of February, thought to be on the 27^th.

Sterling unsurprisingly was down following the news of the defeat, weighed down following little signs of a break from this deadlock.

This week it’s looking like it is Jeremy Corbyn’s position that is to fall under the spotlight instead of Mrs May’s. Indeed, it’s been reported that a group of Labour MPs resigned from the party due partly to disagreements over his handling of Brexit.

In the rear view mirror of last week we saw

Very weak US retail sales for December spooked markets briefly on Thursday. Expected to rise +0.1% for the month, instead they plummeted -1.2%, the highest monthly decline since 2009. Due to the fact consumer spending accounts for the lion’s share of GDP, it resulted in economists revising GDP growth sharply down. Before the panic sets in, it’s worth remembering that this reading was the first estimate and will be revised twice more, with retail sales figures often heavily revised.

Some economists attributed the weakness to the fact that Thanksgiving fell earlier than usual last year, on 22^nd November. It’s thought this resulted in the post-holiday shopping landing in the final week of November rather than the first week of December. We have less sympathy for this view considering that retail sales for the month of November were roughly in line with the average of November readings from 2009-2017 at +0.5%.

The UK on the other hand posted very strong retail sales figures for January on Friday morning, well ahead of consensus and shifting the annual rate to over 4%. Retail sales in the UK have been on a strengthening trend over the past 18 months, largely helped by the fact UK consumers have been experiencing real wage growth now since the beginning of 2018.

Germany was a whisker away from falling into a technical recession, as fourth-quarter GDP growth released last week was flat at 0.0%. However, whether it fell into technical recession or not isn’t really the issue – either way, Europe’s largest economy is suffering.‎